ABSTRACT
The current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a global issue to its quick and widespread over the world, including in Indonesia. More than 60% of positive cases came from Java island, therefore the proposed model focused on six provinces in this area. We developed a discrete-time stochastic epidemic model, such as Spatial-SIRD model, associated with the mobility of people by public transportation (air and land). Model parameters were estimated by fitting the data of October 22nd – 28th, 2020 and November 8th-November 14th, 2020 with the model. At the beginning of the estimation process, we used the coefficient of regression from the observation to estimate the range of parameters. Afterward, the order statistics method was carried out to determine the best parameters so we could forecast the number of infectious of each province. The SIR model was created by applying the regression rate of infection parameters before and after the long holiday from October 28 to November 1, 2020. The effect of this long holiday was that it could increase the number of cases so that there was a difference in the rate of infection. © IEOM Society International.